Teleworking: A blip or profound shift?
An increased shift to teleworking after the pandemic could permanently reduce traffic, but perhaps not as much as many people think. Commuting represents less than one-third of urban public transport traffic.
While the pandemic increased the prevalence of teleworking, distance working only suits a small segment of workers—primarily highly educated employees in white-collar industries. For the rest of the workforce, transport infrastructure will continue to be important in urban development.
The pandemic forced the European Investment Bank, as many other organisations, to move its entire staff to teleworking almost overnight. For the EU bank, the experience was less traumatic than many thought. Our work continued almost seamlessly, despite having only a tiny percentage of staff teleworking before the pandemic.
Strong connectivity and internal IT systems allowed the Bank’s business to continue almost as normal. Many other firms had a similar experience. And those that already had established teleworking practices, like the tech giants Google and Twitter, have shown no hurry to get employees back into their offices.
It’s hardly surprisingly. People’s preference for telework also increases with their distance from the office. The French statistical agency INSEE suggests that 3% of the labour force teleworks regularly in France. That percentage drops to below 2% for people travelling less than 5 km from their home to the office, but rises to more than 8% for people those having to travel more than 50 km to the office.
Changing traffic patterns could require operators to reassess their services and question their business models moving away from revenue streams based on daily commuters using season tickets to less predictable patterns of income. This will affect financiers like the European Investment Bank, as this may affect its borrowers credit profiles.
A permanent shift to teleworking could force transport operators to rethink their entire infrastructure network, placing less emphasis on radial links connecting residential areas to business centres, for example. It could mean a shift to more orbital or community based routes, involving homes, schools and commercial centres.
But it’s not clear how extensive the move to teleworking will be.
